New Zealand's milk and honey heyday with China is in the past, a book argues, as Prime Minister Chris Hipkins prepares for an official visit and trade delegation to Beijing.
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The book's release comes amid concerns the superpower could meddle with the upcoming Kiwi election.
A stocktake of the Beijing-Wellington relationship after 50 years of diplomatic relations has been undertaken by Sam Sachdeva, published as The China Tightrope.
The conclusion is a worrying one for Kiwis hoping for a China-led recovery from the COVID downturn.
"Kiwis need to get to grips with the fact that the glory days of the relationship are over," Mr Sachdeva told AAP.
"We can't just focus on making money off exporting milk powder to China and turn a blind eye to concerns about the country's increasingly aggressive foreign policy and human rights abuses.
"We've been walking a tightrope for some time when it comes to China, but that tightrope is getting thinner and much more precarious."
Built off interviews with diplomats and leaders, the book surveils bilateral ties through a number of lenses: trade, migration and the Chinese state's increasing engagement in New Zealand politics and media among them.
New Zealand was the first western nation to sign a free trade deal with Beijing in 2008.
Mr Sachdeva's book argues the original trade deal took policymakers by surprise with its success.
Economic modellers believed it would be worth, at most, $NZ400 million ($A361 million) after 20 years.
In 2013, five years after it was signed, Kiwi exports had trebled to $NZ7.7 billion.
"I don't know that anyone in New Zealand actually realised how big the trade deal would become," he said.
Swollen trade also bolstered Chinese interest in New Zealand's politics.
Mr Sachdeva revisits the oft-overlooked agreement between Jacinda Ardern's Labour and the opposition National party, led by Todd Muller, to quietly sideline a pair of Chinese-born MPs from each party.
Labour MP Raymond Huo and National MP Jian Yang both announced their retirement weeks out from the 2020 election.
NZ media reported their departures followed intelligence briefings offered to the two party leaders.
The particularly secretive Mr Yang taught Chinese spies and was a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) member before moving to New Zealand in 1994, refusing to give English-language interviews during his last term.
Mr Sachdeva reports Mr Huo worked the Chinese diaspora in NZ for Labour by aligning it with the ruling CCP, translating Ms Ardern's "Let's Do This" campaign slogan to a Xi Jinping quote.
"The resignations definitely should have got much more media coverage and public attention," Mr Sachdeva said.
"Two MPs from our largest political parties essentially got forced out of Parliament on the advice of intelligence officials, but no politicians or officials have ever talked about it publicly.
"Obviously there will be national security concerns limiting what can be said, but to say nothing at all is a striking lack of transparency and accountability."
Gaps remain in New Zealand's framework that might limit China's involvement in domestic politics.
Unlike Australia, there is no foreign interference legislation, the political donation regime has obvious workarounds for overseas-based mega-donors, and there is little oversight of CCP-influenced domestic Chinese media.
Mr Hipkins announced on Monday he would travel to China later this month for an official visit and trade delegation, taking in Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai.
It is the first prime ministerial visit to China since the COVID-19 pandemic, and comes before Australian leaders have been able to secure a visit.
Mr Hipkins said he would disclose further information on the trip next week.
Australian Associated Press
